Steven F. Schreiber, CFA
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Washington is trying to bail out the whole US economy

We finally got the details about the US government's next bailout attempt...a $150 billion-plus package that will send rebate checks out to taxpayers and some more that will promote spending by businesses.  It wasn't enough that the government tried to bail out people with irresponsible mortgages...or that the Federal Reserve continues to bail out Wall Street with cheap money by cutting interest rates and adding liquidity every time the stock market falls..or that foreign investors are bailing out US banks who didn't properly manage their risks.  Now the government is in the business of bailing out the whole US economy!

Rather than address a single problem that the US has with its struggling economy, the government is just going to mail out checks equal to 1% of the US GDP.  What better way to grow an economy than have the government spend money it doesn't have?  Nobody's happy if the economy does not grow 6% per year and the stock market doesn't grow 10%. 

Unfortunately, the band-aids keep getting bigger.  And we all know that we use the biggest band-aid for the more serious scrapes and cuts.  But there comes a point where band-aids don't help any more and you need serious medical attention to fix the problem. 

The US economy is reaching the point where band-aids no longer work.  The wounds are becoming infected underneath the band-aids.   We need some significant work to fix our broken economy. 

Ben Bernanke’s Economic Stimulus Package

Ben Bernanke is urging Congress to enact some sort of economic stimulus package, which most likely will come as tax rebates or unemployment benefits. The idea is to infuse about $150 billion into the economy by giving money to people to spend, trying to jump-start some consumption and job growth. While the idea will likely give a little boost to the overall GDP in 2008, it is about as useful as putting a Band-Aid over cancer. Let’s look at some of the results that will come from this stimulus:

• $150 billion in the US is a drop in the bucket when spread thinly. Very little in new investments will be made, creating few jobs.

• The stock market will artificially inflate temporarily, allowing executives to take more attractive bonuses. Eventually stock prices will fall back down and the gains will be lost.

• The US’s budget deficit will grow since the money will not create enough job growth to increase future tax dollars to the government.

• Very few individuals will be significantly affected by a few hundred dollars in their pocket. I can see most people going to Wal-Mart or the grocery store to spend their money. This won’t change anything significant in the economy.

What we need is a stimulus that will create sustained growth, not just a little “pop” in the economy. A cash infusion spread thinly will not create investment. Nor will tax breaks for corporations (which is being suggested by conservative economists). We need a stimulus that will promote the following:

• Increase overall consumption by spreading GDP dollars more evenly throughout the population (reduce the wealth gap)

• Increase productivity by promoting investment in technology and education

• Increase productivity by increasing the number of workers

• Increase productivity by improving the morale of the dejected US workforce

The solution? Put the $150 billion into the Small Business Administration in the form of grants to small businesses. If the SBA gave grants of $500K to qualified small businesses with promising plans for growth and invention, there would be 300,000 small businesses with a huge cash infusion. These businesses will spend this money on capital improvements, new employees, and investment that will boost productivity. The absolute worst that will happen is that the companies will spend the money on a failed business, creating no growth…but they will spend the money. The worst case scenario of this solution is the best case scenario of Bernanke and Bush’s stimulus plan.

Credit Card Crisis

The next crisis this country will face is a credit card crisis.  Capital One just announced a charge of almost $2 billion for bad loans...I think this is just the beginning.  Look for more write-offs as consumers continue to build up credit card debt with no increases in  income and no home equity to cover  the payments.  These banks are much less willing to lower interest rates, which will make it harder for consumers to pay down balances.  Add to this tighter regulations the banks have to follow, a weak economy, and we will start to see the fallout of this country's dependency on credit. 

The Middle Class Crunch

I’ve been reading plenty of articles lately about the middle-class crunch, talking about how it is almost impossible for a middle-class family to make ends meet.  The ones that really grab my attention are the ones written by economist that deny that a middle-class crunch exists.  I see so many Wall Street economists read off macro-level data showing that the crunch is an illusion because inflation is x, health care is y and GDP growth is z, without ever looking at a real-life situation.  You would think that these economists would be some of the more intelligent people who could conduct a simple income statement, considering that these are the ones driving the economics of our country’s financial system.



To show the reality of the middle-class crunch, I conducted a simple budget for an average couple living in Orlando, Florida.  Only one member of the household is employed in this example to save on commuting costs (considering the cost of daycare, fuel, cars, etc., unless the spouse can attain a high salary, it is not worth it to have both partners working).  This example shows the absolute bare-bones expenses of an average couple in Orlando who has not yet had children:



middle class budget



1.      They share one car, which was purchased in 2005 for $23,000 and financed over 6 years with 10% down and an APR near 8%.



2.      The commute to work is about 20 miles, and after running errands and other trips, fuel costs about $250 per month.



3.      A 6-month rate for Geico is around $600…it is this high because living a house below the median price for the county means you are living in a less than ideal neighborhood.



4.      Maintenance of $50 is conservative considering you need to change the oil every 3 months, routine maintenance, flat tires, dents, and all other things that go wrong with a car.



5.      Tolls of $0.50 per way on the commute for the each of the 20 work days, plus a few dollars for other travel on the highway.



6.      Very little per months on clothing.  I didn’t even have to include this line, but it makes the example a little more realistic.



7.      Eating out once per week.  It is difficult to eat out and buy one appetizer, two entrées, soft drinks and a tip and spend less than $35.



8.      Food prices are out of hand.  Try to go to the grocery store and eat for a week and pay for laundry detergent, cleaning supplies, batteries, and all other small household necessities for less than $125.  Keeping the monthly grocery bill under $500 per month is difficult.



9.      Maintaining a house costs money…there are always leaks, broken appliances, filters to change, yard upkeep, termite and pest control, and all other regular maintenance a house requires.



10.  Purchasing a small, 3 bed, 2 bath house for $180,000 ($20,000 below Orlando’s median home price) and paid 20% down, leaving a mortgage of $144,000 at about 6%.  After real estate taxes and homeowners insurance, the monthly payment is $1279.



11.  A gym membership to work off the stress of not being able to make ends meet is $21 for the couple at Planet Fitness.



12.  Two small dogs or one big one that eat 12 cans and one bag of food per month.  Add in vet bills and heartworm pills and $30 per month is very conservative.



13.  The house has a cable and internet package from Brighthouse. 



14.  Being very economical keeps the electric bill at about $200 per month.



15.  A family plan from T-Mobile costs about $80 per month, plus a land line that is required for the alarm system.



16.  A home security system that costs $27 per month, because as previously stated, a house at this price is not in the best neighborhood.



17.  The water and sewer bill averages $85 per month.



This is a no-frill budget, leaving out many expenses that many people incur  This is the budget of a couple with no children living at bare-bones costs in a below-average house and sharing one car.  This list includes absolutely no entertainment other than cable TV and eating out a few times with no savings for the future.  Does this sound middle-class to you?  With these expenses totaling over $3400 per month, living in this situation would require a salary of about $59,000 per year assuming taxes and benefits take 30% off gross income.  Throw in children and this monthly cost goes through the roof.  Now try to find a job in Orlando that pays $59,000.  These are management positions that require significant education and experience.  You need a college degree and 3-5 years of experience.  Consider that every additional $100 per month expense would require $1714 of added income, living in the middle class today becomes almost impossible.  Forget about gifts for Christmas and birthdays, flowers for your mothers on Mother’s Day, a new computer when your old one breaks, or a new sofa after the dogs scratch up the old one, or any other luxury.  Let’s just hope this middle class couple doesn’t ever get a cavity, need braces, have a car accident, get sick, or have a baby.  Welcome to Middle-Class America, where according to some economists there is no crunch.

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. - How Many Licks?

How many licks does it take to understand why the share price does not grow at Tootsie Roll Industries?  Let’s see how many…



  1. Melvin and Ellen Gordon hold about 16 million shares of TR, nearly 30% of the total outstanding.  Major change is unlikely when these two control the executive decisions of the company, the board, and the shareholder votes.  There is virtually no system of checks and balances to ensure that the company is operating with the stakeholders’ interests in mind.  The only stakeholders who are being interests are being met are the Gordon’s.

  2. Executive compensation has virtually no performance incentives.  Pay is split between a base salary (which is excessive) and a bonus based on management’s discretion.  Each of the key executives makes over $1 million in salaries and bonuses, with no compensation based on share performance (meaning no stock options).  Share price and company growth are not a priority at the company.

  3. Excluding the Gordons, senior management holds a total of 35,403 shares, totaling less than $1 million in a company worth $1.42 billion.  The total ownership by senior management is less than any single executive made in salary + bonus last year.  Why do they care if shares never increase if they don’t own any? 

  4. When was the last time you saw a new Tootsie Roll product?  They like to purchase dated candy companies that have no relevance in today’s society, like Andes Candies and Double Bubble.  Purchases of these companies provide no growth, if not negative growth. 

  5. According to the annual report, “the Company does not expend material amounts of money on research or development activities.”  How do they expect to grow?  Oh yeah, I forgot, growth does not benefit management in any way.

  6. The Corporate Governance Quotient is a corporate governance rating system provided by Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) on over 8,000 companies worldwide that evaluates the strengths, deficiencies, and risks of a company's corporate governance practices and board of directors.  Tootsie Roll Industries has a Corporate Governance Quotient better than 0.5% of the S&P 400 companies.  Doing the math, that means that there are only 2 companies worse than Tootsie Roll in the S&P 400 in terms of corporate governance.

My New Years Resolution - A Portfolio Overhaul

In 2008 I am overhauling my portfolio.  By the end of January I expect to have a beautifully streamlined portfolio that is poised to maximize my potential return.  I am doing this because as time goes by, my portfolio tends to get out of control.  I have too many different securities, too many companies that are not in position to grow, and too many investments that veer off track of my goals and time horizon.  I also want to align my holding with my updated views of the market and the future of the market, and allow me to be more flexible to realign my positions. 


  • I sold nearly all of my large caps, and going forward my large-cap holdings will almost exclusively be held in ETFs.  I do not like to be a stock picker of large caps because it is too difficult.  Large caps are very liquid and over exposed.  These two qualities in my mind lead to high efficiency in pricing and an inability to beat the overall market.  Also, the stories are already played out.  Wal-Mart is not likely going to double in size in the next three to five years.  I see investing in large caps as trying to time markets and cycles, not investing in the fundamentals of a company.  What would be an exception to this?  I continue to hold ExxonMobil.  I am investing in ExxonMobil for the play on oil, not for the company itself.  If oil prices continue to increase, my investment should follow.  If oil prices fall, my investment probably will also fall, but I’m making up for it by paying less to fill up my tank!  I am essentially hedging my commute!


  • I am getting out of Brazil.  Brazilian stocks have had an incredible run in the past 4 years, but I am beginning to wonder how much higher they can go.  Until 2004, Unibanco has hovered around $20 per share.  It now trades over $140, even though sales and profits have not even come close to that growth.  Signs are also starting to point to the dollar reversing its fall, meaning the real should start to fall vs. the dollar.  I’m going to take my profits from Brazil and run.  I may be bailing out too soon, but I don’t want to get greedy in a country with such a shaky economic history.


  • I will use ETFs to capitalize on some sectors getting beat up more than they deserved.  This includes financials and residential real estate.  When I am comfortable that both of these sectors have reached their bottom, I will be purchasing XLF and REZ shares.


  • Gold…this is a tricky one.  Gold is often used as a hedge against the dollar falling and against inflation rising, so its price has historically tracked the inverse of the dollar.  I believe that the price of the dollar already reflects the weak US economy and the upcoming interest rate cuts, and I am expecting a slight recovery of the dollar.  Based on this logic, gold prices should fall accordingly.  However, I don’t know if that will happen.  I think that gold is becoming the next hot investment that everybody wants to buy, currently priced at $862 per ounce and triple what it was in 2001.  It looks like this price will continue to increase, but I’m not going to fall into the trap.


  • So what will my stock portfolio look like?  After the overhaul, it will likely have about  4 or 5 different ETFs, comprising about 40% of my portfolio, to diversify my holdings.  The other 60% will be held in mostly mid-caps that I feel have the potential to someday become large caps and small caps that can become mid caps…maybe 15 to 20 different holdings.




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